Komunikasi Krisis Bencana Gunung Api dalam Perspektif Chaos Theory dan Contingency Theory

Abstract

Crisis communication is a vital element in disaster management, especially when facing complex events like the Mount Sinabung eruption. This study examines the dynamics of crisis communication in the Sinabung disaster response, using Chaos Theory and Contingency Theory as analytical frameworks. Through a qualitative case study, we analyzed the complex communication processes involving the government, media, and affected communities. the results show that the crisis communication system operated under unpredictable conditions and exhibited non-linear characteristics. Fragmented messaging and conflicting narratives between central and local authorities led to information delays and a bifurcation in community decision-making, particularly regarding evacuation. From a Chaos Theory perspective, the system showed sensitivity to initial conditions and the emergence of community self-organization when formal communication channels failed. Meanwhile, Contingency Theory analysis revealed a mismatch between the hierarchical structure of disaster organizations and the crisis's complexity, slowing local communication responses. This study integrates both theories to frame crisis communication as a dynamic, adaptive system rather than a linear process. Practically, the findings highlight the need for more flexible, coordinated, and context-sensitive disaster communication strategies to improve the effectiveness of response and risk mitigation.